Friday, 8 May 2015

It's 1992 All Over Again

As I stood alone outside a primary school in Deptford yesterday giving out ‘Vote Today’ leaflets, as bidden by our organisers, I was able to reflect on Labour’s national General Election Campaign strategy.  Why had we totally failed to stand up for the economic record of the last Labour government?  Why had we failed to rebut the claim that the deficit was due to Labour’s profligacy and why had we failed to stand up against Austerity and instead decided to go to the polls offering Austerity with a smiley face?  As I stood there wishing the minutes to pass so I could move along, I realised that I was outside a school that was fairly newly-built and part of a innovative new building that combined the school with a public library, café and community resource.  As I looked at the school, I had my back to a leisure centre and swimming pool that had been improved and expanded just a few years before.  Both these projects had been built under the last Labour government, a government that had reduced the national debt before the Great Recession from the level it inherited from the previous one.  So much for the charge that Labour spent its time in office pouring scarce taxpayers’ money down the drain.

Perhaps the greatest opportunity provided to Labour by yesterday’s Election disappointment was the defeat of Ed Balls.  He must bear a large share of the responsibility for the party’s campaigning performance on the economy over the last 5 years and the message it put to the electorate yesterday.  In truth, as Shadow Chancellor he should probably bear a larger share than Ed Miliband himself.  To be honest, I rejoiced when Alan Johnson gave up the job and Miliband appointed Balls.  I remember saying to our Mayor, Steve Bullock, how pleased I was to hear the news because I thought that he would prove to be a ‘pitiless assassin’ when it came to ‘kebabbing’ Chancellor George Osborne.  I thought Balls would make mincemeat out of him and his ridiculous claims that the UK was bankrupt and about to go the way of Greece and then pour it on when Austerity inevitably sucked the life out of an economy that had been recovering.  Instead I looked on with growing surprise, frustration and anger as he increasingly appeared to resemble a striker who suddenly found himself with the ball at his feet and facing an open goal but succumbing to stage fright. 

But sadly, there is more to it than this.  I listened to Balls speak in the flesh twice and both times I came away with my view of his competence dented for reasons that may surprise.  The first was at a local constituency fundraising dinner when he made a speech in which he completely mangled a punchline to a funny story.  The second was at an event for business people in London.  Then he was introduced by Ed Miliband who said he was going to hand over to him to tell us about Labour’s policy on the economy.  Balls then said that before he did that he would just like to tell us what was obviously meant to be a crowd-pleasing, amusing story.  He then proceeded to mangle this one as well.  He appeared to verbally lose his way, come to a juddering halt and forget why he was there.  We all stood there and realised that revelation of Labour’s view on the economy had been postponed.  At the time, I thought these experiences oddities rather than symptoms of inadequacy.

However, Balls’s greatest difficulty was that the more his new high profile job thrust him into the public eye, the more the public decided they didn’t like him.  I don’t want to dwell on this.  Suffice to say that in order to be a successful politician you have to be popular or inspire confidence, preferably both.  You are at something of a disadvantage if people take an instant dislike to you and think you untrustworthy, especially when the impression is reinforced by further exposure.

Why am I putting the boot into the vanquished Balls?  It does make me feel rather uncomfortable.  My point is that when I raised my misgivings about him with party insiders I was told that I was wrong, he was very effective and, what is more, everyone who had worked with him in the Party, even if they didn’t agree with him politically, liked him.  In fairness, it has to be said, he did come third in the 2010 Leadership contest.  Yet if he had won, is there anyone who would confidently say  that his personal poll ratings would be higher than Ed Miliband’s?  There can surely be no doubt that, if Balls was still in Parliament, he would be making his run to be the next leader.  Even if this wasn’t the case, he would probably remain a leading figure in the next Shadow Cabinet.  Can a political party really expect to win elections when its internal democratic processes allow individuals that are so unpopular with the public to ascend to national leadership positions where they have so much exposure to the, er, public?

As it is, Balls is out of the picture and with his departure so goes probably the most high profile figure with a clear connection to the Blair/Brown/Iraq War/Financial Collapse Labour government that so many people obviously found so toxic, even if unfairly.  Perhaps now, the decks are clear for a new beginning and an abandonment of the ‘AusterityLite’ economic policy.  One question remains.  Are Labour Party members, politicians and the unions capable of identifying someone who is capable of gaining traction with the public sufficient to win the next General Election and, even if they were, would they be willing to give them the job?  Or, when it comes to electing leaders, is the Party’s natural response to pick people whose greatest talent is the ability to concede defeat gracefully?

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