Like so many people I am terribly disappointed about the EU referendum. It was a shock. It seemed that most people, Nigel Farage included, thought that the UK was going to vote to Remain. When you receive a shock, you can lose your perspective and your sense of reason, albeit briefly. Certainly this seemed to be the case with some of the prominent Tory Brexiteers who seemed genuinely surprised and upset by David Cameron’s decision to resign when it was plain as a pike staff to everyone else that he would have to go. Events may prove that Cameron too may be suffering from the same condition. I find the notion that the country will wait patiently until October to enable the Tory party to choose our next Prime Minister at its convenience optimistic to say the least. I expect Nigel Farage to call for a General Election to be held immediately every time he gets on air. Which will be a lot over the next few weeks. The chances of a General Election taking place this autumn must be high, whatever the Parliament Act may say about fixed terms.
So I hope I am not struggling under the same malady when I say that I wonder whether the decision to Leave the EU will prove to be implementable given that the winning margin was hardly emphatic and opinion across the nation was so divided along geographic and age lines. That the young will accept the right of the retired to adversely affect their life chances, to put it politely, may prove to be a heroic assumption. To believe that Scotland, Northern Ireland and London will accept a result that their citizens rejected by a margin of around 50%, seems naïve in the extreme. Indeed, Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP is already making noises about holding a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The Brexiteers will no doubt argue that the outcome of the EU referendum should be respected because that’s the democratic thing to do. The country has spoken and the matter settled. Whilst this is fair enough in the case of a General Election it is a bit harder to justify in the case of a referendum that delivers a marginal result. After a General Election you know that the result is only for 5 years and opposition politicians will be elected to continue to argue against the policies of the victors and continue to advocate for policies that the voters rejected. A referendum is the chance to answer a binary question to all intents and purposes forever. One can debate this with Constitutional wonks until the cows come home. This is all rather academic. The most practical answer to those who tell you that they are the majority and, therefore, that you have to knuckle under, is to leave and form your own majority. It is the lesson of Yugoslavia, two of whose former republics are now members of the EU and going it alone quite nicely.
So as the Scots think about leaving the UK in order to remain a part of the EU, isn’t it time that London did the same? An independent London would, after all, be bigger than Scotland (population 5.3m). Indeed Londonia with a population of around 8.5m would be larger than 13 current EU member states (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia). It would be as large as Austria, and not that much smaller than 6 other member states (Belgium, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Portugal and Sweden)
What I think will make the idea of secession from the UK appealing to many Londoners is the fact that London is paying for much of the rest of the country. How many residents of our great, world city who have woken up today horrified at the prospect of leaving the EU will view the idea of going it alone a step too far when they are told that one pound in every five they earn is going to fund the rest of the country? The EU referendum result seemed to swing over to Leave because people in poorer regions were worried, quite wrongly, that migrants were essentially taking more out of public services than than they were putting in. It’s ironic that these voters were disproportionately older people and therefore more likely to be taking more out of the system, in age-related benefits and health and social care, than they were putting in. And to add insult to injury, this deficit is being funded by a group of people who overwhelmingly wanted to Remain and live in another place. Moreover, those exporting funds to run the things that make us a nation in practical terms, like universal services such as education, the NHS and social care, may well be disproportionately hurt by the vote to Leave as London’s financial services industry loses out to EU competition.
This whole sorry saga has an added piquancy because of the involvement of one Boris Johnson. The man supposedly was Mayor of London for 8 years where he was tasked with standing up for Londoners and getting the best deal for them. No sooner was he out of that job then for reasons of his own ambition he jumped on the Leave bandwagon, knowing full well that Brexit would be bad for London. This morning he could not speak to reporters outside his London home. Instead he had to run away to escape the hostile jeers and catcalls from furious Londoners. Now it seems he will be plotting his final surge to secure the Premiership. Does anyone seriously think that Johnson is a figure that could unite the country? I am sure they do in parts of Ukipland. In London? No chance. For London, Boris as PM would be the last piss take.
The Leave vote was a slap in the face to all Londoners. Do the Brexiteers think we will take it lying down? Dream on.
